2024-03-28T14:06:58
120070
Thu Mar 28 14:06:59 EDT 2024
Data and Code for: An Empirical Dynamic Model of Trade with Consumer Accumulation
Paul Piveteau
120070
https://doi.org/10.3886/E120070V1
This paper develops a dynamic structural model of trade in which firms slowly accumulate consumers in foreign markets. Estimating the model using export data from individual firms and a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo estimator, the model predicts lower survival rates for new exporters and estimates low entry costs of exporting - less than half of those estimated in the absence of consumer accumulation. Using simulations and out-of-sample predictions, I show that the introduction of such frictions and the reduction in estimated entry costs allow the model to match important facts regarding the aggregate response of international trade to shocks.
international trade
F14 Empirical Studies of Trade
F17 Trade: Forecasting and Simulation
L20 Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior: General