Metadata record for Replication data for: The Logic of Insurgent Electoral Violence
113182
Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
ICPSR metadata records are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 United States License.
V1
Replication data for: The Logic of Insurgent Electoral Violence
113182
http://doi.org/10.3886/E113182V1
Luke N. Condra
James D. Long
Andrew C. Shaver
Austin L. Wright
Please see full citation.
This work is licensed under an Other license created by the data depositor. Please refer to the LICENSE file, which should be located alongside the project data and documentation.
Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
Condra, Luke N., Long, James D., Shaver, Andrew C., and Wright, Austin L. Replication data for: The Logic of Insurgent Electoral Violence. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2018. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E113182V1
[insurgency, survey data, rainfall, instrumental variables, military records, voting, windspeed, elections, violence]
D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
Competitive elections are essential to establishing the political legitimacy of democratizing regimes. We argue that insurgents undermine the state's mandate through electoral violence. We study insurgent violence during elections using newly declassified microdata on the conflict in Afghanistan. Our data track insurgent activity by hour to within meters of attack locations. Our results
suggest that insurgents carefully calibrate their production of violence during elections to avoid harming civilians. Leveraging a novel instrumental variables approach, we find that violence depresses voting. Collectively, the results suggest insurgents try to depress turnout while avoiding backlash from harming civilians. Counterfactual exercises provide potentially actionable insights
for safeguarding at-risk elections and enhancing electoral legitimacy in emerging democracies.
Afghanistan
District/hour
road-level event
[survey data, administrative records data, census/enumeration data, observational data]
SIGACTS: Shaver, Andrew, and Austin Wright. 2017. "Data on Combatant Activity during Afghanistan War Advance Scientific Investigation of Insurgency." ANQAR: Luke N Condra, Austin L Wright, Civilians, Control, and Collaboration during Civil Conflict, International Studies Quarterly, Volume 63, Issue 4, December 2019, Pages 897-907, https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqz042 Additional souces: See Data Appendix.